2020 is one of the most transformative years in internet history. It was when adults became TikTok creators, live video creators were your best friends, binging video was everyone’s hobby, your parents became gamers, your office became Zoom, and ecommerce became just plain ‘shopping’. The internet was your window to the outside world. Social media was your news source. You probably drank a lot more.
You wore your politics over your nose and mouth, or you didn’t, which in itself spoke to your politics. Bipartisanship was pushed to its absolute limits, accusing doctors themselves of hackery based on how deadly they predicted the virus to be then either accepting or denying the infection rates or deaths based on how you vote.
What a dumpster fire of a year.
So now it’s time to look forward! 2021 should (hopefully) bring us mass adoption of a coronavirus vaccine. And as we emerge from our bunkers, we’ll be welcomed into a new normal created by this global trauma.
Here are my 2021 predictions for digital media:
FAMGA Stocks Will Soar
…and not for the reason you think.
The big five will continue to get intense scrutiny from global governments for their monopolistic practices. This will make for a bevy of #Delete______ hashtags. And these will not affect stock prices whatsoever, much like we’ve seen in the past.
At the same time, apps like Robinhood that make investing and/or day trading easy and fun will continue to grow astronomically. And who do amateur stock buyers buy? FAMGA, Tesla, Netflix, etc.
This will create a bubble, but bubbles only burst when the perceived valuation of these stocks goes down. And that’s not going to happen in 2021.
On the same token (pun intended), I predict Bitcoin will exceed $35,000 for the same reason. Coinbase, Paypal, and Cash App make it too dang easy to buy it.
And it goes without saying, but this is not a recommendation to buy and you should not look to me as your financial advisor. Don’t gamble with money you need.
Live Video Goes Shoppable, And Back
Western markets really, really want live shoppable video to be ‘a thing’.
The pundit class loves to look at what’s happening in China, including the absolutely off-the-charts growth in ecommerce sales from live video in 2020, and say it’s going to happen the same way in the USA.
It’s not.
Here’s the ultimate “well duh” statement: American consumers are different than Chinese consumers. And although there will always be a place for huge shopping numbers through live video for tentpole moments (merch drops, exclusives, holidays), live video in the West will only explode where intent to buy is high on shopping apps like NTWRK or shopping sites like Amazon.
VOD will still be where DTC thrives for UGC in the USA in 2021.
Brands Will Go Live As Their New Social Frontier
Brands are always a few years behind the trends. They never want to be first movers, but once they read enough articles in the Wall Street Journal to give them some cover they’re happy to push into big initiatives.
Twitch is where YouTube was in 2013. Brands have done a lot of toe-dipping, but few dove in head-first. The aforementioned articles written about live video and shopping in China will make brands brave regarding live video in 2021.
However, brands also know building new audience is far more expensive than using existing platforms. That’s why brands will focus their live efforts on Facebook and Instagram first, and the braver (see: scrappier) brands will look to TikTok, Twitch, and YouTube.
So get ready for lots of Home Shopping Network-style programming in 2021!
Live Audio Chats Will Explode
I feel like this one is cheating since Twitter has already started the beta of their Clubhouse-clone feature, but this space will be big in 2021.
Podcasts have soared in the past decade, but the scale in creation has been throttled because of the technical difficulty of starting and maintaining a podcast. Creating key art, buying microphones, editing, and the learning curve of new podcast platforms have kept a lot of regular folks away from creating audio content.
Clubhouse’s success changed that.
Now anyone with a phone can talk about anything to a public audience, like Twitch without needing to shower.
Not only will you see every major platform create Clubhouse-clone features, but you’ll see a lot of enterprising start ups build upon this idea by creating audio talent networks, new monetization tools, and distribution outlets.
COVID Will Slow, COVID Habits Will Not
The vaccine is here (for rich countries)! The rollout is slower than we’d like, but there is an end in sight to this pandemic. And that means we all go back to work in our office, stop gaming so much, streaming numbers will decrease, and our parents will quit creating TikTok videos, right?
Heck no!
Old habits die really, really hard. And now that mom and dad have learned how to use Instacart and workplaces have realized productivity doesn’t take a terrible hit when people work from home, there are sectors throughout 2021 that will continue to thrive including remote communication, mobile gaming, appified meditation and therapy, teledoc technology, and at-home shopping. The markets that will continue to take a hit will include travel, in-person events, and brick-and-mortar shopping, who will have to look to new technologies to save their industries.
The Metaverse Wars Will Begin
The Roblox IPO will be huge. Facebook Horizon will get out of beta. More avatar-based games will include deeper social features. The sales of avatar skins and items will continue to explode. VR will become more prevalent (though won’t hit a tipping point in 2021). AR glasses will launch with a fizzle, but it’s a start.
Welcome to the year that marks the beginning of the metaverse wars, where companies will compete to be the best avatar-to-avatar chat and experience solution.
It won’t win unless it’s mobile-first, easy to use, and relevant to every day users. I don’t believe mass adoption will come from a gaming company as the learning curve is intimidating and steep. I don’t believe it’s going to be VR-first as every day usage for social experiences are all mobile-first. I don’t believe it will involve AR glasses as people will still feel self-conscious to wear these 1.0 models in public. The mobile phone will be necessary as users will both need to consume content in the metaverse and create it, which will require at least a camera and global positioning.
Warning: I am the COO of Wormhole Labs where we have created a mobile-first, user-generated metaverse that will launch globally in 2021, but my prediction stands. The term ‘metaverse’ will be thrown around a lot in 2021 through a lot of different mediums and contexts.
Goodbye Brands, Hello User Pay
Let’s all take a moment to think about how much Mr. Beast has taught us in the past few years. He was able to build an incredible content business by giving away money and prizes to fans. He got Elon Musk to participate in his charity. He broke the internet with an app that rewards users for keeping their finger on their screen. And, this month, he launched 300 ghost kitchens across the US to sell Mr. Beast Burgers. He is the king of tentpole moments.
The running theme: he didn’t need brands. He just needed his audience.
We can also look to the success of OnlyFans and Cameo, where stars monetize their audience directly by offering custom or exclusive content for a charge. Kevin from the office made $1m on Cameo. Bella Thorne made $2m in a week on OnlyFans.
Stars don’t need to court brands to make millions anymore.
And that means brand friendliness is no longer a requirement. It’s an option.
Audiences are now more used to giving money directly to their favorite stars. This behavior will lead to more edgy content online, new start ups finding exciting new ways to create paid ‘fan clubs’, and pressure for major platforms to adopt by allowing their stars to drive micro-transactions on-platform.
Trump Will Act More Like a Social Media Star
I know I’m going to get a lot of trouble for saying this because his name comes with so many emotions, but Trump’s exit from the White House will allow him to dedicate more time to building his career like a social media star.
He will be banned from at least one major platform in 2021 (I’m guessing Twitter), he will launch a content-driven company (probably video-based with opinions about the news), and he will use his enhanced celebrity from being president to launch more entrepreneurial efforts (the return of Trump Steaks?)
All of the drama you’re used to from Jake Paul or Tana Mongeau will be mirrored in Donald Trump as he fights to control the news cycle leading up to the 2024 election.
China Will Own More Global Social Experiences
TikTok has been one of the biggest stories coming out of 2020, owned by ByteDance (though TikTok Global is still a mystery). Chinese company Tencent owns a ton of popular global gaming assets including Riot, a 40% stake in Fortnite-creator Epic, and PUBG.
It’s clear that Chinese companies are focused on global audiences, even if global audiences aren’t allowed in China.
Investment coming out of China will continue to be focused on the biggest, splashiest tech platforms with a focus on broad audience. If a Chinese company is unable to buy into a company that’s gaining global dominance, they will build to compete (perhaps we’ll see more Discord competitors in 2021?). You’ll see many headlines with big investments and launches from ByteDance, Tencent, Baidu, and Alibaba.
Beyond 2021
The world was forced into a digital tipping point in 2020. A few studies have shown ecommerce has accelerated by as much as 5 years. This year has been a huge winner for digital video outlets and streamers. Baby Yoda merch is through the roof.
The terrible events of 2020 will be seen in the history books as a tipping point for innovation and technology. It forced us, as a society, to look at where digital enterprises can solve long-lingering life issues. It’s a terrible time to be an Earthling, but an incredible time to work in digital content.
Author Phil Ranta is the Chief Operating Officer at Wormhole Labs in Los Angeles, California. He has built some of the largest creator networks in the world at Facebook, Fullscreen, and Studio71.
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🍾 well said (no # needed). Very excited to see Wormholes launch; congrats to you & the team. Happy New Year to you & yours Phil. 🥳🙏🥂